# Economic Forecast Methods

Go back to the [[Econometrics Main Page]]

Three methods of #forecasting

Technques
- Causal Methods
- Time Series Methods
- Qualitative Methods

**Causal Methods** - Relies on relationships between variables, relationships must be more than luck
- #Regression Analysis
- Multiple #Regression
- Qualitative #Regression
- Logit
- Probit


**Time Series Methods** - trends in data over time
- Trend Analysis
- Moving average
- Exponential Smoothing
- Trend and Seasonsal Decomposition
- Box-Jenkins Arima


**Qualitative Methods** - highlights unobservable variables, takes place of hard data sources
- Surveys
- Delphi Method
- Jury of Executive Opinion
- #Salesforce composites
- Consumer Market Survey